Summary/Abstract
Obtaining carbon dioxide atmospheric removals on the gigaton scale imagined by current discussions requires immediate attention not just to the technologies, but also to the economic and business conditions required to make those technologies viable. One of the most important issues is to make profitable businesses now, so that technologies demonstrated today can begin to reap the benefits of learning-by-doing and grow at realistic rates to meet the future demand. The U.S. State of California is likely to be fertile ground for the growth of these businesses because of existing beneficial policies and circumstances. The key example of such a California policy is the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which has been an effective approach for gradually reducing the carbon footprint of transportation fuels. Under the LCFS, transportation fuels sold in California are assigned a lifecycle carbon intensity. Sales of fuels with a carbon intensity above an annually declining limit incur a deficit that must be offset by purchasing credits generated from the sale of alternative fuels with a carbon intensity below the standard. The governing regulations for the LCFS are in the process of being revised so that Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and direct air capture may be included as a means of reducing fuels’ carbon footprint (note this paper was published before the amendments were approved by the California Air Resources Board – see the LCFS CCS Protocol for current details). If approved, the emissions reduction resulting from use of CCS will reduce the fuel carbon intensity. Reduction of the carbon intensity below zero would be valued as any other reduction, thus creating the first substantial payment system for negative emissions.